This graph illustrates that increasing the standard deviation of the percentage of two-point field goals attempted by each of the players in a lineup can increase the lineup OPPP by as much as 3 points per 100 possessions, more than found with respect to field goal attempts generally.
Interestingly, the coefficient for the standard deviation of the percentage of two-point field goals attempts with respect to the dependent variable of lineup two-point field goals made per possession was negative, while it was positive with respect to the dependent variables of lineup three-point field goals made per possession and lineup free throws made per possession. This indicates that while a greater distribution of two-point field goal attempts predicts a greater number of three-point field goals made per possession and to a lesser extent a greater number of free throws made per possession, it also predicts fewer two-point field goals made per possession.
Good work, Nima!
ReplyDeleteCould you report r^2 values, please? It would help the reader understand the strength of the correlation. Thanks!
Daniel, thank you for your feedback.
ReplyDeleteWhen using lineup data, the r^2 in predicting OPPP 2PFGM/poss, FTM/poss and 3PM/poss is 1.000, as is probably obvious to you since Points = 2*2PFGM + 3*3PM + FTM.
The r^2's for 2PFGM/poss, 3PM/poss and FTM/poss as predicted by the significant standard deviation variables are, .080, .166 and .079, respectively.
That's rather low--is the slope significant when running the regression?
ReplyDeleteIn predicting 2PFGM/poss, the 5 variables with t-values with absolute value over 1.4 were the standard deviations of the % of 2PFGA, 3PA, OREB, AST and TO and the sig values were, .000, .000, .000, .060, and .152, respectively.
ReplyDeleteIn predicting 3PM/poss, the 5 variables with t-values with absolute value over 1.4 were the standard deviations of the % of 2PFGA, 3PA, FTA, OREB, and TO and the sig values were, .000, .025, .000, .003, and .036, respectively.
In predicting FTM/poss, the 4 variables with t-values with absolute value over 1.4, were the standard deviations of the % of 2PFGA, 3PA, FTA and TO and the sig values were, .000, .101, .000, and .050, respectively.